Predicting the future trajectory of armed conflict is a notoriously difficult task, even when limited to a period of only one year. Events internal to a country are capable of producing unwelcome surprises: in the DRC we have witnessed the Kasai region plummet into horrendous violence that began over the matter of a local succession, at a time when attention was focused on the volatile east. The foreign policy of a global or regional power can also produce a major change: in Syria the Assad regime had been struggling until Iran and Russia intervened to ensure the regime’s survival. Nothing …read more
Source: Conflict Analysis and Resolution Information Services