Assessing the damage: What the Iran war really means for Europe’s defence
fanny.pollet@i…
Thu, 04/09/2026 – 14:21
5 minutes
Regardless of whether the ceasefire between the US and Iran holds, the war in the Middle East complicates European rearmament and support for Ukraine, while also further eroding confidence in the United States as a reliable guarantor of Europe’s defence. To put their defence ramp-up on a firmer footing, Europeans should reduce exposure to US political volatility, industrial bottlenecks and the diversion of defence equipment during wartime.
Rearmament under strain
Despite grave doubts about Donald Trump’s commitment to Europe, Europeans have continued to lean heavily on Washington both for their own rearmament and for arms deliveries to Ukraine. The hope was that purchases from the US would help maintain transatlantic ties, while also providing critical equipment for which there are few alternatives in Europe, such as Patriot systems.
The US-Iran war has called this entire model into question. Politically, the war has raised new doubts about America’s commitment to European security and to Ukraine. Europeans’ unwillingness …read more
