Putin’s troubles: Facing mounting economic and military pressure, the Kremlin may try to muddle through – or escalate
fanny.pollet@i…
Mon, 04/27/2026 – 09:55
5 minutes
Russia’s economy is not yet collapsing. Nor is its military campaign against Ukraine. But the Kremlin is mortgaging the country’s future as underlying structural weaknesses in the economy begin to emerge. Meanwhile, Ukraine has stabilised its defences, is carrying out successful strikes deep inside Russian territory, and is set to bolster its armed forces with the newly unblocked loan from the EU which allocates €60 billion to cover Kyiv’s military needs.
More likely than not, the regime will try to muddle through these difficulties. But if Vladimir Putin concludes that time is no longer on his side and the window to freeze Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine on favourable terms is closing, he may choose to escalate. Europeans should not be intimidated by this prospect; they should prepare to face it with credible resolve.
Economic and military strains
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