2016 was a hinge year in international affairs—because of three seminal events. These were: the UK’s decision to exit the European Union (Brexit) in June. The second was China’s rubbishing the July verdict of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), which rejected the historicity of its claims on disputed islands in the South China Sea. The third, and arguably the biggest game changer of all, was the presidential election victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. in November. These three disparate black swan events, coming on top of already changed underlying economic realities, accelerated the tilt from West to East, …read more
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