Russia’s foreign policy has taken numerous unexpected turns in recent years, from annexation of Crimea to military intervention in Syria. The element of surprise for Germany and the EU arises out of a mix of lack of political transparency in Russia, Western misperceptions and the Kremlin’s deliberate instrumentalisation of unpredictability.
In order to expand analytical thinking about Russian foreign policy and improve preparedness for future events, this scenario study based on scientific research describes eleven possible situations that could potentially unfold in the coming years. Four fields of Russian policy are considered: EU member states; other regions; internet, energy and security; …read more
Source: German Institute for International and Security Affairs