Section: Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (Israel)
How Likely Is an Irrational US Presidential Order to Use Nuclear Weapons?
Nagasaki bomb, via WikipediaBESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 417, March 5, 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: There is no scientifically valid way to predict US presidential irrationality. Nor is there any analytically acceptable way for an American president to foretell the nuclear outcomes of any considered policy decision. There is another, less...
Tread Carefully with the New US Administration
Donald Trump by Michael Vadon, September 13 2016, Aston PA, via FlickrBESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 414, February 16, 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The new US administration is far more sympathetic to Israel than was its predecessor, but we must avoid taking steps from which there is no return. The Middle East is not Washington’s sole focus...
Trump, the Mideast Conflict, and the Jordanian Option
King Abdullah of Jordan, WEF, Flickr, Wikimedia CommonsBESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 407 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Instead of fixating on an independent Palestinian state, the new US administration should look east to the Hashemite Kingdom as a stabilizing influence on Palestinian politics. President Trump has an opportunity to help Jordan prosper...
A Two-State Solution? Just Not According to the Clinton Parameters
UN map of Israel via Wikimedia CommonsBESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 401 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: With the start of a new era in the White House, Israel must let go of the two-state solution as defined by the Clinton Parameters. It is time for a reassessment of Rabin’s approach, which stressed the importance of the preservation and...
Guide for the Diplomatically Perplexed: Trump 1.0
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 400 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The “art of the deal” does not translate directly from the world of business to the world of diplomacy. Diplomatic deal-making requires mastery of four basic elements: integration of diplomacy with the credible threat of force; the rewarding of friends and the punishing of enemies (rather...
Can Trump Construct a New World Order?
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 387 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Though he might be a novice in foreign policy, Donald Trump could bring about dramatic changes in the global arena by aligning with Russia against China. In this scenario, Russia would have an opportunity to align with Western civilization, ending a millennium-long schism. Will Russia be...
Reassessing American Interests in the Middle East
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 382 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: President-Elect Trump has serious decisions to make about the Middle East, including what to do about Syria, how to tackle Islamic State, how to take on Iran, and, of course, how to handle the perennial Israel-Palestinian problem. Trump’s margin of error is narrow, especially since...
Trump’s Ambivalence Towards NATO Could Backfire
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 381 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: US President-Elect Donald Trump has toned down the anti-NATO rhetoric he employed on the campaign trail, but it remains uncertain whether he appreciates the value of the organization for American interests. NATO provides security insurance not only to Europe but also to the US. Trump...
America and Russia: Towards a New Partnership?
by Jiri Valenta with Leni Friedman Valenta BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 380 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A pragmatist like Reagan, President Trump will face three urgent foreign policy issues: renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal with a US-Israel military option and Russia’s acquiescence; resolving the human catastrophe in Syria in partnership...
Lessons of the UNESCO Vote
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 375 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israelis who cultivate the pipe dream of substituting Israel’s long-term bond with the US for an alliance with China and Russia should take a long, hard look at the votes of Moscow and Beijing at UNESCO, where they joined in denial of Jewish links to Jerusalem. Russian and Chinese...
