Section: Conflict Analysis and Resolution Information Services (UK)
The Ukraine: Between War and Peace
Europe’s unnecessary conflict in the Ukraine continues to rumble on and despite recent prisoner exchanges and the talk of deploying peacekeepers there is a very real danger that there may be a serious escalation in the near future. The Minsk II Agreement stands out as the only serious attempt to bring the conflict to a close and this has...
Armed Conflict in 2017 Part Four: 2018 Forecasts for Syria and International Terrorism
This week, the final part of the 2017 review looks at what 2018 holds for Syria and ISIS and global terrorism. As with the Rohingya Crisis and Ukraine, which were covered last week, these are brief overviews of what are complex situations extrapolating from the blogs throughout 2017 and making short term forecasts. Included below are links for...
Armed Conflict in 2017 Part Three: 2018 Forecasts for the Rohingya Crisis and Ukraine.
Predicting the future trajectory of armed conflict is a notoriously difficult task, even when limited to a period of only one year. Events internal to a country are capable of producing unwelcome surprises: in the DRC we have witnessed the Kasai region plummet into horrendous violence that began over the matter of a local succession, at a time...
Armed Conflict in 2017 Part Two: Syria and International Terrorism
Last week, in part one of the review of 2017, we reviewed Rohingya Crisis, conflict in Africa, and Ukraine. This week we will address Syria and ISIS and global terrorism, completing the five topics that this blog has covered. It should be stated again that armed conflict is not a state of affairs that affects the entirety of the world but instead...
Armed Conflict in 2017 Part One: The Rohingya Crisis, Africa and Ukraine
First, the good news: In general, as a global trend, the prevalence of armed conflict has been reducing consistently throughout the twenty-first century, with less deaths overall and a reduction of inter-state conflict. Data from the Global Peace Index demonstrates that this continued into 2016, and while we await reports for 2017, this trend is...
Ukraine: The curse of geopolitics
The conflict in Ukraine over the Donbass region lumbers on, generally unnoticed unless there is a spike in the violence, as was the case earlier this year with Avdiivka. While this is clearly a battle over the future status of the Donbass region in the east and there is a genuine will amongst the separatist leaders for independence, the...
The Kurdish Question Part Two: Regional relationships and implications.
Kurdish territories in Syria and Iraq have expanded dramatically as a consequence of wars forced upon the Kurds and they have demonstrated a knack for both political representation and the participation of women in political and military affairs. This is a far cry from their status under the Syria of Hafez al-Assad, where they were barely...
The Civil War in Yemen Part One: Origins and Participants.
Generally this blog has focused on four distinct subjects: The Rohingya Crisis, the Ukraine conflict, the Syrian war, and ISIS. These are varied and important subjects. The plight of the Rohingya has been described as ethnic cleansing and forced migration, and is at the very least oppression and a gross violation of human rights. Ukraine’s...
Ukraine: Europe’s frozen conflict
The attitude of the Europe, Russia and US to the situation in Ukraine is one that beggars’ belief: on the one hand, a collective denial that Russian forces are involved, on the other, a collective wish not to see it at all. This is despite the presence of OSCE observers who are documenting the frozen conflict in the east. This may be...
Re-escalation of fighting in the Donbass region of Ukraine
The conflict between the Ukraine’s armed forces and Russian backed separatists of the Donetsk Peoples Republic in the Donbass region began in 2014 and the most recent ceasefire has been in place since the 24th December 2016. There have numerous ceasefire violations recorded by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE),...
