Section: European Union Institute for Security Studies (France)
The Belarus dilemma
There never was much doubt that Alexander Lukashenko would obtain a fifth mandate in the presidential elections held in Belarus on 11 October. The incumbent, often labelled as Europe’s last dictator, won another landslide victory, with 87.75% of the recorded votes. More surprising was the limited protest that greeted his re-election,...
On target? EU sanctions as security policy tools
Amid lingering questions over their utility in restraining the proscribed actions of the Assad regime in Syria, curbing Iran’s nuclear programme or softening Russia’s aggressive stance on Ukraine, the EU stands to benefit from a balanced, empirically-informed assessment on how sanctions have been implemented, monitored and enforced....
Ukraine’s other war
Ukraine is fighting two wars simultaneously. The most obvious is the hybrid conflict in the east, fuelled and sustained by Russia. But while the ‘hot phase’ in this arena is over, at least for now, Ukraine is also engaged in a war against itself. It is locked in a struggle against its own dysfunctionality and endemic levels of corruption...
Saakashvili in Odessa
Odessa has served as a spring board for foreign politicians before. The governor of the region between 1803 and 1814, Armand-Emmanuel du Plessis, Duke of Richelieu, went on to serve as prime minister of France twice. But (temporarily) hosting for a former president is something new. The appointment of Mikheil Saakashvili – a restless yet...
The bear and the beaver: Russia and European energy security
Winter is long over, and with it the worry, for a few months at least, that a Russian gas cut-off could leave Europe in the cold. This year, however, the fading threat has the appearance of being more than merely an annual phenomenon. While Europe’s energy security will be a challenge for decades to come, three recent developments provide...
Defence: solidarity, trust and threat perception
A common defence policy requires mutual solidarity and trust, as well as a shared threat perception. Over the past year, the armed conflict in Ukraine has heavily tested all three in Europe and the US. So far, transatlantic solidarity, trust and shared threat perception seem to be holding. Reacting to Russian aggression in Ukraine and its...
Russian foreign policy: domestic constraints
President Putin is often presented by Western media as an autocratic leader free of checks and balances who imposes his will in foreign policy. If we could only climb ‘inside the head of Vladimir Putin’, to paraphrase the title of a recent book by French philosopher Michel Eltchaninoff, we could divine his intentions and predict his next...
Sanctions and Russia: lessons from the Cold War
The public debate around the effectiveness of sanctions is divided between those who believe that sanctions do not work; a more diffuse camp of lukewarm supporters arguing that sanctions are either a necessary evil or a way to preserve the credibility of the EU and US; and a smaller group of true believers who are convinced of their political and...
The EU and the NPT: drawing lines
On 27 April, some 150 states and 100 non-governmental organisations will convene at the Review Conference (RevCon) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in New York for four weeks. At the five-yearly meeting, state parties negotiate assess members’ performance in implementing the treaty and outline further steps to be taken. While...
Russia’s info-war: theory and practice
The fabrications and distortions propagated by the Kremlin during the Ukraine crisis have made the concept of ‘information warfare’ common currency. Less widely appreciated is the Russian leadership’s understanding of the term and the vision of the world upon which it rests. Russian military theorists often argue that the...
