Section: Geopolitical Futures (USA)
Watch List Findings: June 3, 2017
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this list manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
Different Visions for Europe
By George Friedman Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe could no longer rely on others, by which she clearly meant that Europe could no longer rely on the United States. The statement undoubtedly arose in part from her personal friction with Trump. Part of it had to do with...
Watch List: May 30, 2017
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
Russia’s History of Destabilization Campaigns
Originally produced on May 22, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC By George Friedman From its founding, the Soviet Union conducted campaigns designed to destabilize and neutralize potential enemies. After the Russian Revolution, Lenin founded the Third International to support Communist parties around the world. Soviet intelligence ran...
Why Russia Can’t End the North Korea Crisis
By Xander Snyder Normally, it is China, not Russia, that acts as a negotiator with the North Koreans. But lately, Moscow appears to be stepping up its efforts to mediate talks with Pyongyang relating to its nuclear weapons program. These efforts, however, are unlikely to effect any real change since Russia lacks the means to persuade North Korea...
Watch List: May 23, 2017
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
The Stability of Trump’s Foreign Policy
Originally produced on May 15, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC By George Friedman With no fat lady in sight as the opera unfolds in Washington, it is useful to stop and consider an interesting point: For all the tumult that has defined Donald Trump’s domestic policy, his foreign policy is relatively stable. There are some notable...
A Weakening State in Azerbaijan
By Antonia Colibasanu Located on the western edge of the Caspian Sea, with Russia to its north and Iran to its south, Azerbaijan is a geopolitically strategic country. It is also a country facing serious economic problems, and if these problems trigger instability and weaken the government’s control, Azerbaijan will become vulnerable to...
The Future of the Venezuelan Crisis
By Allison Fedirka In our 2017 forecast, we predicted that Venezuela’s government would not survive the year. Throughout 2016, the administration of President Nicolas Maduro faced political gridlock and nationwide protests that seemed to be reaching a critical point, and the problem has not subsided. For more than a month now, large-scale...
The Cost of Fixing Russia’s Economy
By Xander Snyder Russia is facing an economic crisis, and the search for palatable solutions has come up empty. Low oil and natural gas prices have hamstrung the Russian economy, which depends on the sale of hydrocarbons. President Vladimir Putin knows the status quo must change, but he has put off a decision on the path forward as long as he...
