Section: Geopolitical Futures (USA)
What Past Empires Tell Us About the Future
Originally produced on March 20, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC By George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro Spanish essayist George Santayana once wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” but there is a problem with this famous and witty line. Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We...
Russia’s 2018 Presidential Election
Summary At this time next year, Russia will hold its presidential election. In the lead-up to these elections, the Russian economy will continue on its current negative trajectory. At the same time, President Vladimir Putin, who is not as strong as he outwardly appears, will pursue more security and institutional measures to consolidate his...
Watch List: March 9, 2017
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
A Busy Day in Geopolitics
By Kamran Bokhari There will be many days that are, geopolitically speaking, rather quiet. Yesterday was not one of them. Three separate but highly significant developments occurred involving the four major powers of the globe: the United States, Russia, China and Germany. Given that the three events illustrate a major step forward in our...
Letter from Genoa
By Jacob L. Shapiro This past weekend I spoke at a conference hosted by Limes, an influential Italian magazine focused on geopolitics. The topic on everyone’s mind was what U.S. President Donald Trump’s new administration means for the future of the world. I was asked whether Trump’s election portends the end of the “American...
Water and Geopolitical Imperatives
Originally produced on Feb. 27, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC George Friedman and Allison Fedirka Geographic features and conditions are part of the building blocks of geopolitical analysis. And yet, the influence that geography has on a country’s imperatives and constraints can be underappreciated. Access to water is an important...
Watch List Findings: March 4, 2017
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this email manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
Watch List: March 2, 2017
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
The Kuril Islands and Russia’s Pacific Interests
By Laurenz Gehrke and Allison Fedirka Russian and Japanese officials are preparing for March 14 talks in Tokyo to discuss the economic development of the Kuril Islands. Territorial claims over the archipelago have been a subject of dispute between Russia and Japan since the 19th century. The islands have remained under Russia’s control...
Watch List Findings: Feb. 25, 2017
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this email manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
