Section: Geopolitical Futures (USA)
Maintaining Perspective About Adversaries
By George Friedman The United States has difficulty evaluating the threat posed by adversaries. Before World War II the U.S. massively underestimated the Japanese. In Vietnam, the U.S. underestimated both the resiliency and will of North Vietnam. In Iraq, the U.S. underestimated the response to the destruction of Saddam Hussein’s regime. In...
China’s Grand Goals and Limited Options
By Jacob L. Shapiro China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy said in a statement on Dec. 15 that a Chinese carrier battle group, centered around the CNS Liaoning ship, carried out its first ever live-fire exercises. On Tuesday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies published a report that provided satellite images...
Watch List: Dec. 14, 2016
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
Obama’s Deep Dive Into Putin’s Intent
By George Friedman U.S. President Barack Obama announced last week a “deep dive” into the question of whether the Russians hacked into Democratic Party officials’ emails in order to influence U.S. elections and help Donald Trump become president. A secret CIA report saying it has overwhelming evidence the Russians did it was then leaked,...
The World in 2017
The United StatesEuropeRussiaEast AsiaCentral AsiaSouth AsiaThe Middle EastSouth AmericaAfricaLong-Term Technological Transformation Background As we have been forecasting, the major force driving the international system will be rising nationalism deriving from the economic and social forces unleashed during the 2008 financial crisis. We...
Watch List Findings: Dec. 10, 2016
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this email manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
Watch List: Dec. 7, 2016
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
False News
Originally produced on Nov. 28, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC George Friedman Since the election last month of Donald Trump as the U.S. president, something considered to be a new phenomenon has become a focus of attention. Some suspect that false news may have swayed the election. Perhaps equally as important, some claim this false news was...
Watch List Findings: Dec. 3, 2016
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this email manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
Watch List: Dec. 1, 2016
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
