Section: International Crisis Group (Belgium)
Ukraine: The Line
The 500km line of separation between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatist rebels suffers heavy daily violations of the ceasefire agreed in Minsk in 2015. Escalation is possible, and the status quo risks a political backlash against the Kyiv government and no way out of sanctions for Moscow. All sides should pull back heavy weapons from...
Ukraine’s Meat Grinder Is Back in Business
The one bright spot in the otherwise largely unimplemented February 2015 Minsk peace agreement was a ceasefire that ended full-scale fighting between Ukrainian forces and Moscow-backed, pro-Russian rebels who seized parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the Ukrainian-Russian border almost two years ago. …read more Source:...
Russia’s mixed signals on eastern Ukraine
One of the most dangerous elements of Ukraine’s nearly two-year-old conflict remains the unpredictability of its neighbour Russia’s tactics. Despite repeated expressions of support for the Minsk peace process and recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty over the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR, LNR),...
Russia and the Separatists in Eastern Ukraine
A 2015 ceasefire signed in Minsk is largely holding in eastern Ukraine, while the most likely outcome is a brittle, long-term frozen conflict. Nevertheless, Russia is juggling many options, and Minsk remains a vital possible path to resolution. The deal deserves steadfast, sanctions-backed support from the U.S. and European Union. …read...
Rebel Infighting Bringing Chaos to East Ukraine
Ten days ago Yelena Filippova, secretary to the head of Ukraine’s self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR), Alexander Zakharchenko, was badly injured when her car exploded as she drove to work. That afternoon, a prominent DPR politician was shot and wounded on one of the main streets of the city. With evening came...
Overcoming the Ukraine Crisis
Memories of the twentieth century’s great conflicts, from 1930s pacifism to Cold War antagonism, are stirring again, motivating both Russia and the West in one of the gravest threats to global order and European stability in the past 25 years. Indeed, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine involves nuclear-armed powers whose collective military...
The Ukraine Crisis: Risks of Renewed Military Conflict after Minsk II
Danger of renewed fighting in Ukraine’s east is mounting. Crisis Group’s new briefing shows that neither side is looking to compromise or able to win outright. Our accompanying statement sets out a new Western strategy with Russia to defuse one of the greatest post-Cold War threats to European stability and global order. …read...
Eastern Ukraine: A Dangerous Winter
Winter in Ukraine is injecting further uncertainty into an already volatile conflict. After well over 5,000 deaths and eight months of war, eastern Ukraine – particularly the separatist-held parts of Donetsk and Luhansk – now runs the risk of a humanitarian crisis. All parties involved in the conflict should refrain from offensive operations,...
Ukraine: Running out of Time
Ukraine needs a government of national unity that reaches out to its own people and tackles the country’s long overdue reforms; both Russia and Western powers should back a vision for the country as a bridge between East and West, not a geopolitical battleground. …read more Source: International Crisis...
