Section: The Jamestown Foundation (USA)
Russian Military Reform: The Ukraine Conflict and Its Impact on Morale
Evidence has emerged in Russia’s Southern Military District (MD) that the conflict in Ukraine is not popular among Russian contract personnel (kontraktniki). Reportedly “dozens” of kontraktniki have absconded from or deserted their units on grounds of their opposition to being sent to fight in Donbas. After more than a year of the...
Belarus and the Debate on the Intrinsic Value of Social Order
The upcoming presidential campaign in Belarus is gaining momentum. This pivotal theme is being discussed against the backdrop of, and in conjunction with, two other phenomena: the ongoing economic decline and regional geopolitics. Alongside the incumbent, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, thirteen candidates applied to the Central Electoral...
Crimean Government Indicates It Wants Greater Autonomy From Moscow
The puppet government of Crimea has unexpectedly clashed with its bosses in Moscow. On July 7, Crimea’s governor, Sergey Aksyonov, declared he would not allow the Russian federal government to force its own rules on the peninsula. His comments came after Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), at the end of June, briefly detained...
Minsk Armistice: Enforced at Ukraine’s Expense?
In Kyiv, on July 15–16, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland prevailed on President Petro Poroshenko and parliamentary leaders to accept constitutional liabilities toward the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk territories. Nuland’s intervention achieved its goal, but not without a severe political commotion in Kyiv. The...
The Air Tragedy That Condemned Putin’s Russia
It was a year ago last Friday (July 17) that the Boeing 777 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a missile over eastern Ukraine, resulting in a loss of 298 lives. The shock of that tragedy awakened Europe and the wider global community to the grave risk that the localized armed conflict in Donbas...
Berlin, Paris Seek Constitutional Status for Donetsk-Luhansk in Ukraine
Twice in recent days (July 10 and 14), German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande have jointly demarched Kyiv to, first, legalize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities in Ukraine’s constitution, and next, to legitimize those authorities through local elections in those territories. Moscow has been airing similar...
Belarus Sitting on the Splits: As Uncomfortable as It Seems?
In his interview to Euroradio, the charge d’affaires of the European Union’s delegation in Belarus, Richard Rudolph, underlined the gradual improvement in the relationship between the EU and Belarus. But he also made the following observation regarding Belarus’s willingness to have good relations with both the East and the West:...
Moscow Rejects Dutch Findings and the Malaysian Proposal of an MH17 Crash Tribunal
On July 17, 2014, Malaysian passenger jet Flight MH17 was shot out of the sky over the territory of Ukrainian Donbas controlled by Moscow-backed separatists, killing all 298 people on board (most of them—Dutch citizens). The Ukrainian authorities have accused the separatist rebels of shooting down MH17 with a surface-to-air BUK M1 missile (known...
Why Is AGRI Back on Europe’s Energy Security Agenda?
The Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector (AGRI)—a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, which aims to bring Azerbaijani gas and, in the future, gas from Turkmenistan to Romania and Hungary by way of Georgia and across the Black Sea—was at the center of attention of regional decision makers late last month. In particular, an AGRI Ministerial...
The Kerch ‘Curse’: Russian Occupation Makes Crimea an Island
By its illegal occupation of Crimea, Moscow has transformed that Ukrainian peninsula into an island, the second non-contiguous part of the Russian Federation and one that is already giving the Russian government and the Russian economy serious problems—as Kaliningrad long has (Ekho Moskvy, July 10). Like Kaliningrad, Crimea can be reached by land...
