Section: The Jamestown Foundation (USA)
Victory Day and Belarus’s Diplomatic Offensive
On May 9, Belarus celebrated the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. According to Emmanuel Ioffe, an authoritative Minsk historian (no relation to this author), the overall number of Belarus’s casualties in that war amounted to 3,074,000, whereas the country’s population on the eve of war was 9,183,000, within current...
Donetsk, Luhansk ‘People’s Republics’ Seek International Legitimization Through Local Elections (Part One)
The possible international recognition of “elections” staged in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) is one of the major innovations of the Minsk Two armistice agreement on Ukraine. It is Moscow’s innovation, with Germany and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on board. From 1991 to...
What Does the Arrival of American Military Equipment in Georgia Mean?
On May 11, an unprecedented two-week military exercise, “Noble Partner 2015,” began at the former Russian military base, Vaziani, in the suburb of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Russia withdrew its last military forces from Vaziani in 2007 (Civil Georgia, May 11). Georgian and United States military units have taken part in joint military...
Russia Prepares for Possible New Summer Military Campaign in Eastern Ukraine
Summer is the best time for major offensive military action in the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) of eastern Ukraine. In the spring and autumn, long periods of bad weather turn unpaved roads and plains into a mud quagmire (Rasputitsa), seriously hampering troop maneuverability and logistic support. In 2014, intensive summer...
Moscow Patriarchate Rapidly Losing Out in Ukraine—and Beyond
The Moscow Patriarchate is rapidly losing influence in Ukraine and may be dissolving from below. These trends could open the way to the formation of a single autocephalous Ukrainian Orthodox Church, independent of Moscow, and undermine the influence of Patriarch Kirill and his Church at home and abroad. More than half of all the parishes of the...
Russian Spetsnaz Personnel Detained in Ukraine
Ukrainian military spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, told a press conference on May 17 that two Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) personnel were arrested by government forces 15 kilometers from Luhansk. The details surrounding the detentions are important to understand Russian actions in southeastern Ukraine. Since the outset of the conflict in Donbas...
Donetsk, Luhansk Propose Amendments to Ukraine’s Constitution
On May 12, the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) jointly presented their proposals for changing Ukraine’s Constitution. Their documents avoid using the terms “DPR” and “LPR,” even as they rapidly consolidate their state structures and armies under Russia’s protection. From that position of...
Minsk Armistice in Ukraine Advances to Political Phase
Moscow, Berlin, some other Western European capitals, and most recently, US Secretary of State John Kerry are growing eager to see the Minsk Two agreement’s political phase starting in Ukraine. The Minsk Contact Group’s Working Groups have been launched, inaugurating that political phase (see EDM, May 15). The Kremlin has encouraged...
Dubious Outcomes of Kerry’s Meeting With Putin in Sochi
Russia is slowly recovering from this month’s (May 9) celebrations of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany 70 years ago, but remains reluctant to take stock of the problems that are looming large over the immediate future (see EDM, May 11). The propaganda story is typically self-serving: Russia has allegedly succeeded in...
Posthumous Nemtsov Report Declares ‘Putin’s War’
On May 12, friends and supporters of the murdered opposition figure Boris Nemtsov published a report based on his work to uncover Russian military involvement in the war in Ukraine. The Nemtsov report, “Putin. Voina” (Putin. War), offers 64 pages and eleven chapters assessing the conflict, with an initial print run of 2,000. It does not provide...
