Over a year into the ever-worsening Ukraine crisis, there is little doubt that an optimistic era in Russian-Western relations has ended. Several scenarios for the changing relationship between the West and Russia are conceivable and can indicate longer-term trajectories that can endow Western debate and policymaking on Russia with much needed strategic foresight. Conceivable scenarios are all based on different degrees of regime cohesion in Russia, and of unity among European and transatlantic partners. Ensuring stability of the political, economic, and social system created and led by Vladimir Putin in Russia is arguably the key driver behind the onfrontation imposed …read more
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