The Black Sea Strategic Triangle in 2023 and Beyond
zlotx5
Tue, 03/07/2023 – 05:00
The Black Sea region is one of the most strategically important areas of the globe. It influences the economic and political balance of both the Middle East and Europe. Conflict or instability there easily spreads to the Caucasus, eastern Europe, the Mediterranean basin, and beyond. Conversely, trade and stability in the region holds the promise of greater affluence (and energy security) for multiple regions. It is no surprise, then, that a Black Sea war has become a defining event in the early 21st century geopolitical landscape.
Despite hopes from some that Putin’s war will end with catastrophic collapse and political reformation in Russia, current dynamics do not suggest that outcome. Putin seems intent on sustaining the war despite difficulties, many Russians continue to support him, and Russia can sustain a fight for a very long time. Russia’s relative advantages over Ukraine in economic resources and military potential will persist for the foreseeable future, despite a year of heavy losses. This implies sustained massive subsidy of Ukrainian security by the West, political support for which cannot be assumed. Balancing Russian menace over the longer …read more
Source:: Hoover Institution
