Section: Geopolitical Futures (USA)
The CIA, Russia and the American Election
By George Friedman The CIA’s report on the Russian attempt to influence the American presidential election has been issued. The report asserts that the Russians stole emails belonging to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and John Podesta to embarrass Hillary Clinton and cause her defeat. In addition, it says that the Russians engaged...
Demographics and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Summary Advocates of a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict often argue that demographics loom as an existential threat to Israel’s continued existence as a democracy and a Jewish state. However, the demographics argument presents a false dichotomy because there is no threat to a Jewish majority within Israel’s...
The Soviet Union and Russia: Tragedy and Farce
By George Friedman This week marks the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union. Its collapse was inconceivable at the time. The Soviet Union loomed as a stone colossus astride the world, the equal of the United States, and in the minds of some, its superior. In fact, it was built on a base of sand, held together during its hardest times...
Belarus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
By Allison Fedirka Local pundits, analysts and media have raised the issue of Russian-Belarusian relations reaching their lowest point in at least five years. Belarus’ military doctrine has changed, new agreements were signed with NATO countries, disputes have developed over energy prices and trade regulations, diplomatic protests were...
Watch List Findings: Dec. 24, 2016
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this email manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
Poland’s Rising Leadership Position
By Antonia Colibasanu Poland’s history can easily be summed up as a continuous struggle against invasions and divisions. The country’s geopolitical significance stems from its location between Russia and Germany. We have written about the challenges that both Russia and Germany will face in 2017; these challenges also pose unique...
2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card
Introduction In December 2015, Geopolitical Futures published a forecast for 2016. It was our first annual forecast and covered the most significant developments we anticipated for the year. In July, we published our mid-year report card that tracked the progression of our most important predictions. Here, we provide our final evaluation of these...
Watch List: Dec. 22, 2016
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
Watch List: Dec. 20, 2016
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
Forecasting Russia in 2017
Originally produced on Dec. 14, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro One of the biggest challenges in writing forecasts is clearly communicating our predications for the coming year. There is a certain level of background and analysis that goes into forecasting geopolitics, but often, that background and analysis...
