Section: Geopolitical Futures (USA)
Israel and the Search for a Balance of Power
By Jacob L. Shapiro While the rest of the world was focused on the Assad regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons outside Damascus over the weekend, on April 9 Israel’s air force attacked an Iranian target in Syria for the second time in 2018. The target was Tiyas air base, located about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of Palmyra....
Poland and Ukraine’s Battle Over the Past
Originally produced on April 2, 2018 for Mauldin Economics, LLC By George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu The relationship between Poland and Ukraine has a complicated history. From the 1990s until 2015, relations between the two countries were generally positive. Poland backed Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union and supported Kiev...
Watch List Findings: March 31, 2018
What follows are the preliminary findings for issues identified in the daily Watch Lists this week. We are only sending findings that we regard as significant or potentially significant to keep this list manageable. We have findings for all the Watch List items. Should you be interested in findings not listed here, please contact us and we will...
Debating a Shared History in Eastern Europe
(click to enlarge) In 2014, Ukraine’s Russian-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted from power after refusing to sign an association agreement with the EU. Since then, two parts of Ukraine’s history have been brought to the forefront in Ukrainian politics, and both have been used as symbols of Ukrainian resistance and its...
Two Perspectives on the Conflict in Afghanistan
By Allison Fedirka With all the talk of Washington’s expelling Russian diplomats, it’s easy to overlook Afghanistan, an area in which Russia and the United States have butted heads for years. The list of things that confound their cooperation there is long, but perhaps no issue is more important now than the Islamic State. The United...
Beyond the Rhetoric in the Rift Between Poland and Ukraine
Summary Since 2015, tensions between two important Eastern European countries, Poland and Ukraine, appear to have been rising. It is now common to see public officials from both countries criticizing each other, with Warsaw condemning policies introduced in Kiev, and vice versa. Frequent protests have also erupted. The rift mostly stems from the...
Watch List: March 29, 2018
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
Watch List: March 28, 2018
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
The Ideologue’s Case Against Iran
By Jacob L. Shapiro Imagine a country – a Muslim majority country, no less – that viewed the spread of jihadism as an existential threat, a threat so serious that it was willing to sacrifice its own people to defeat it. Assume that this country, with its large population, robust military and plentiful natural resources, was strong enough to keep...
Watch List: March 26, 2018
The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance. Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our...
