Section: The Jamestown Foundation (USA)
Belarus in the Run-Up to New Elections
Belarus’s presidential elections are going to take place on November 15, 2015. This time, the pre-election period promises to be less eventful than in 2001, 2006 or 2010. The opposition has failed to consolidate and promote either a single candidate as in 2001, two candidates as in 2006, or multiple, unelectable but still recognizable and...
Russia’s Information Warfare Targets Washington and NATO
On April 16–17, the fourth Moscow International Security Conference was held amidst continued disagreement between Russia and the United States and its allies over Ukraine. As usual, the conference was addressed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, as well as Army-General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General...
The Faltering Russian Economy Makes a Renewed Ukraine Offensive More Likely
“Boring” is perhaps the prevalent impression of President Vladimir Putin’s televised four-hour-long Q & A session that aired last Thursday (April 16), which was meant to demonstrate his good health and relaxed attitude to the great many problems worrying his loyal subjects. The three key points he stressed were that everything is under...
Russia Fears Possible Tectonic Shifts in the North Caucasus
Russian experts have written a series of articles on the future of the North Caucasus in a new age of uncertainty in the Russian Federation. They have attempted to determine under what conditions the current political regime in the region could spiral into chaos. Expectations of significant shifts in the country are growing, and experts...
Belarus Comes Under Criticism From Both Sides
A worsening economy, a strengthening national identity, a demographic recovery, and growing Russian criticism of Belarus’s sense of nationhood apart from Russia continue to dominate the news emanating from Belarus. In February 2015, registered economic output was 3 percent below that in February 2014; throughout the first two months of the...
Moscow Is Ready to Supply Iran With Powerful S-300 Missiles
This week (April 13), President Vladimir Putin signed an ukaz (presidential decree) to allow the export of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. Putin’s decision overruled a previous ukaz signed by then-president Dmitry Medvedev, on September 22, 2010, which incorporated into Russian law United Nations Security Council Resolution 1929...
Moscow’s Pressure on Belarus Increasingly Counterproductive
Moscow’s increasing pressure on Minsk to hew the pro-Russia line is proving to be counterproductive in three ways: First, it has prompted President Alyaksandr Lukashenka to take on even more independent positions—and owing to what Vladimir Putin is doing, he is not the “last dictator in Europe” any more. Second, Russian pressure is...
Moldova Risks Opening Pandora’s Box With ‘National-Cultural’ Districts
The Gagauz autonomous territory, instituted in 1994, is the only jurisdiction with ethnic autonomy in Moldova. Adjacent to the Gagauz territory, the Bulgarian-majority district (“raion”) of Taraclia has no particular status. Legislation now pending in the Moldovan parliament would allow conferring a special status on districts or towns, beginning...
Rebel Forces Prepare Spring Offensive in Ukraine
All parties to the Minsk Two agreement, which has resulted in a shaky ceasefire in southeastern Ukraine since February 12, express varying levels of concern about a possible full resumption of hostilities. On April 10, the pro-Russian Ukrainian rebel leader who heads the Donetsk “People’s Republic” (DPR), Alexander Zakharchenko, warned that...
‘National-Cultural’ Enclaves: Moscow’s New Game in Ukrainian-Moldovan Borderland
Russia demands a “special status” for certain territories in Ukraine and Moldova as a device to promote territorial secession processes. Moscow encourages local Russophile groups to claim a “special territorial status” or orchestrates such demands on their behalf, instigating state fragmentation. The first case study is that of Russia’s...
