Section: ETLA (Finland)
Reflections on the Assumptions of Finland’s Population Forecast in the Exceptional Year of 2024
Abstract The updating of the Statistics Finland population forecast occurred in an exceptionally difficult circumstance, in 2024. What would be the effect of COVID19 on mortality and immigration? Will the collapse of fertility that started in 2010, continue? Also the war in Ukraine, and the structural change in immigration, had to be assessed for...
Etla forecasts: A turn in the economy, but Finland is set to remain the worst performer in the euro area
The Finnish economy is set to remain the worst performer in the euro area this year, predicts Etla Economic Research. Finland’s GDP will contract by 0.2 per cent this year, virtually matching last year’s level. Next year GDP will grow by 1.4 per cent. International demand will not be enough to drive export growth this year. Investment...
The recession will be mild, but so will the growth that follows it – “The upturn will not be experienced”
Etla Economic Research predicts that economic growth will remain stagnant for the next few years. Etla has lowered its GDP forecast from before and now estimates that Finland’s gross domestic product will grow by a good percent next year. This year, GDP will shrink by 0.3 per cent. Finland already drifted into a technical recession at the...
Nearly half of Finnish companies have encountered barriers to international trade
As many as 41% of Finnish companies have experienced trade barriers in their international operations in recent years. Most of the examined trade barriers between 2019 and 2022 occurred in countries outside the EU, especially in Russia, the United States and China. However, according to a study conducted by ETLA Economic Research for the Finnish...
Etla Forecast: Finland’s economy will grow by 2 per cent this year, next year zero growth
Finland will also drift into a moderate recession at the end of this year, forecasts Etla Economic Research. Economic growth will slow down to two per cent this year and for next year is projected only zero growth. According to the forecast, exports will benefit from the recovery of service exports but at the same time private consumption...
Electricity Markets in a State of Crisis: An Overview of the Suggested Policy Measures
Abstract If the worst-case scenarios materialize during the upcoming winter months, electricity markets are in danger of plunging into a severe and crippling crisis. The situation unfolds against the backdrop economic sanctions imposed by the EU on Russian economy in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s retaliation in curtailing...
Etla forecasts: Finnish economy is growing despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although growth is clearly slowing down
Forecast: Finland’s economy will grow despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even though growth is slowing markedly. We forecast GDP to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 1.0 per cent next year. The economy will grow this year, boosted especially by private consumption and investment. The impact of net exports on growth is negative....
Etla forecasts: Finnish economy is growing despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although growth is clearly slowing down
Forecast: Finland’s economy will grow despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even though growth is slowing markedly. We forecast GDP to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 1.0 per cent next year. The economy will grow this year, boosted especially by private consumption and investment. The impact of net exports on growth is negative....
In Search of Upcoming Supply Chain Surprises: The World Export Market Shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
Abstract This brief considers the world export market shares of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine across over five thousand commodities (the full dataset is provided online at the same web address as this brief). The aim is to provide a tool for gauging where supply chain disruptions might emerge next. Earlier discussion regarding the international...
The Significance of Russia for Finnish Companies
Abstract This Policy Brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. We scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland. We will show how Russia was seen as a large opportunity for the Finnish economy in the first two decades after the collapse of Soviet Union....
